Why is Africa unable to punch at its weight class? Development Discourse with Patrick Okigbo III, Nextier'sPublic Policy Dialogue Platform, brings together some of Africa's scholars, government, and private sector leaders to explore the root causes of the continent's development challenges and propose evidence-based solutions. In 2024, the platform hosted 23 guests who proposed pathways for the continent's socio-economic and political transformation. Many of the discussions centred on Nigeria. The key insights from these discussions are discussed below.
Leadership is a Necessary (but Insufficient) Condition for Development. Poor leadership remains a central driver of underdevelopment in Nigeria, argues Professor Osita Ogbu, a former chief economic adviser to the Nigerian president. He contends that a leader's philosophy, values, and knowledge set the moral compass and strategic direction for national development. Leaders, in his view, profoundly shape policies and institutions. Professor Pat. Utomi, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for Values in Leadership, makesa similar point. He stresses that values are critical to driving progress and shaping culture. However, leadership alone is not a magic wand, argues Osita Chidoka, a former Nigerian Aviation Minister. Just as a skilled pilot cannot make an aeroplane with faulty engines fly smoothly, a distributional state that focuses on allocating existing resources rather than creating new wealth will struggle, no matter how well-intentioned its leaders are.
For sustained progress, Nigeria must transition into a developmental state, argues Dr. Sam Amadi, Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought. Such a developmental state has a clear national agenda, a capable bureaucracy, and an elite consensus around development. Dr Zainab Usman, Director of the Africa Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explained that Nigeria's elites lack a unifying vision for long-term development, defaulting instead to short-term crisis management. Similarly, Dr Shamsuddeen Usman, former Nigeria's Finance and Planningminister, highlighted the erosion of the principal-agent relationship in Nigeria, where public officials serve personal rather than public interests. Professor Richard Joseph describedthis phenomenon as prebendalism, a system in which officials treat public office as personal property for private gain.
A developmental state requires strong democraticinstitutions. Professor Peter Lewis, the Warren Weinstein Chair of African Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), explained that institutions create predictability and stability, which are essential for economic growth. So, strengthening democratic institutions is also crucial for Africa's progress. Professor Chidi Odinkalu,Professor of Practice in International Human Rights Law at Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, asserts that democracy is not foreign to Africa. However, building on Ali Mazrui's "Triple Heritage" concept, he explains that Indigenous, Western, and Islamic influences have created a complex socio-political situation in the continent.
Democracies outperform authoritarian regimes in economic growth and public service delivery. Dr Nic Cheeseman of the University of Birmingham notes that despite democracy's flaws, Africans continue to value it as a system of governance.Although Africans living under "counterfeit democracies" that have failed to improve quality of life find authoritarian models such as China and Rwanda increasingly attractive., Professor Lewis warns against the illusion of autocracy. Drawing on Atul Kohli's work, he explains that the perception of autocracies outperforming democracies stems from selection bias. Successful autocracies are often compared with failing democracies rather than with well-functioning ones.
Fixing Africa's democratic institutions begins with reforming political parties and electoral processes. Professor Lewis critiques Nigeria's political party system for lacking a clear ideology, policy, or management structure. He notes that the transactional nature of Nigerian politics prevents the formation of sustainable development coalitions. Dr SalihuLukman, Director General of the Progressive Governors Forum, highlights how powerful elites dominate political parties and prioritise self-interest over national progress. He emphasised the need for electoral reforms such as strengthening the independence of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), leveraging technology for transparency, and reforming the judiciary to ensure credible elections.
While leadership and institutions matter, an informed and engaged citizenry is essential for holding leaders accountable. Opeyemi Adamolekun, Executive Director of Enough is Enough Nigeria (EiE), stressed the importance of empowering ordinary Nigerians to understand and exercise their democratic power. Professor Okey Ikechukwu, Executive Director of Development Specs Academy, stresses that civic engagement must extend beyond social media and national-level protests. It must engage local power centres such as traditional rulers and community leaders. Jude Ilo, founding partner of Thoughts and Mace Advisory, advised that activists learn from past movements, such as Nigeria's struggle against military rule.
Education remains central to development. Dr. Modupe Adefeso-Olateju emphasised the catalytic role of education in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, access to quality education remains a challenge due to government constraints, poverty, and cultural norms. She opines that low-fee private schools can bridge this gap, provided effective regulatory frameworks ensure quality and accountability.
Economic diversification is critical to addressing Nigeria's economic problems. Nigeria's overreliance on oil revenues leaves it vulnerable to market fluctuations, explains Dr Tayo Adeloju, Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group. Dr Zainab Usman emphasises the need for economic diversification. Investing in agriculture, manufacturing, and services is crucial for sustained growth. Obi Asika, Director General of the National Council for Arts and Culture, explained that Nigeria's creative industries, which contributed over $153 billion to Nigeria's GDP in 2023, could grow to $200 billion by 2030 and can create jobs and drive growth. Jude Uzonwanne, author of The First Trillion: Disbelief, Arbitrage, and the Nigerian Dream, advocates for localisedeconomic development. The government must shift its focus from centralised to community-driven growth.
Social protection is crucial given Nigeria's high poverty rate.However, past initiatives, such as the National Social Investment Program (NSIP), were hindered by corruption and poor design, notes Olushola Afolayan, former National Coordinator of Nigeria's Multidimensional Poverty Index. Julie Kedroske, Director of the Social Protection Program at Innovations for Poverty Action, emphasised the importance of identifying and reaching the poorest beneficiaries and shifting from short-term handouts to sustainable solutions that equip individuals with skills, resources, and opportunities. She also highlighted the importance of leveraging digital technologies to enhance transparency.
Impact investing offers a sustainable approach to addressing Nigeria's development challenges, explains Thelma Ekiyor-Solanke, Chairperson of Nigeria's Office for Philanthropy and Impact Investing. She emphasises the need for the government to create an enabling environment through policy incentives. With its dual objective of achieving both social and financial returns, impact investing provides a viable alternative to traditional aid. This aligns with the perspective of DapoOyewole, Senior Special Assistant to the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on International Cooperation, who cautions that aid should be viewed as a temporary measure to support national development plans rather than a long-term solution to poverty and underdevelopment.
Nigeria's development challenges are complex, but change is possible. Citing the telecommunications sector as a success story, Prof Lewis explained that targeted reforms in key sectors can yield significant progress. Similarly, Professor Richard Joseph advocates for building "Islands of Integrity" as models of good governance. Dr Ike Anya proposes a similar approach of incremental progress in his discussion about Nigeria's health system. Sustainable change requires a focus on incremental improvements, building on existing strengths, and learning from successes in other contexts.
Nextier, a multi-competency advisory firm, uses its Development Discourse Series to probe for answers to complex development questions. Please click here to view the details of all events.
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Chidinma Linda Obi
Senior Analyst, Nextier and Producer, Development Discourse